Assoc. Prof. Efe Tokdemir, of the Department of International Relations, has been awarded the highly competitive ERC-2025 Consolidator Grant for his groundbreaking project COUNSTER. The project aims to explain why, how and when governments target the constituents of non-state armed actors (NSAAs) and what determines the success or failure of these government-constituency relations as a strategic tool in counterinsurgency.
At its core, COUNSTER highlights that military force is neither the sole nor necessarily the most effective option available to states. By adopting a constituency-centered perspective, the project evaluates both coercive and persuasive strategies directed at NSAA constituencies and examines how these efforts aim to weaken or sever the bonds between armed groups and their supporters. This perspective enables a systematic assessment of when such strategies succeed and when they fall short and for what reasons.
COUNSTER aspires to deliver a theoretical breakthrough in conflict studies by developing the first comprehensive framework that fully integrates the interactions among governments, armed groups and their constituencies. The project employs a mixed-method research design that couples comparative macro-level analysis with micro-level observational and experimental data. Ultimately, the project seeks to uncover the causal mechanisms underlying the divergent outcomes of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaigns. In doing so, it aims to equip scholars and policymakers with an evidence-based toolkit to better understand conflict dynamics and to craft more effective, sustainable strategies for conflict resolution and termination.
