On February 25, the Library Lunchtime Lecture of the 2025–26 spring semester took place in the Library Art Gallery. Assoc. Prof. Efe Tokdemir from the Department of International Relations delivered a compelling and timely presentation titled, “Countering Insurgency /Terrorism: Severing the Ties between Non-State Armed Actors & Their Constituency.”
With this lecture, Dr. Tokdemir challenged the traditional view that counterterrorism and counterinsurgency are primarily military struggles between states and armed groups. Instead, he proposed a “triadic framework” that examines the dynamic relationship among governments, non-state armed actors and civilian populations. According to Dr. Tokdemir, both governments and armed groups compete to win the allegiance of citizens, making public support a central battleground in modern conflicts.
He emphasized that most contemporary conflicts are not interstate wars but intrastate struggles involving non-state armed actors. These groups, he noted, operate not only through violence but also through strategies aimed at building legitimacy, securing resources and governing local populations.
In response, governments employ a mix of repressive and attractive measures to weaken the ties between such groups and their constituencies.
A key focus of Dr. Tokdemir’s research is understanding how civilians react to these competing strategies. He argued that policies designed to suppress armed groups can sometimes produce unintended consequences, strengthening rather than weakening their support base. By incorporating both violent and non-violent dimensions of conflict, his work seeks to explain why well-intended policies may lead to counterproductive outcomes.
The lecture also outlined Dr. Tokdemir’s broader research agenda, including his ERC-funded project supported under the ERC 2025 Consolidator Grant programme, aimed at developing dynamic models to better understand strategic decision making in conflict settings. The lunchtime lecture concluded with a vibrant Q&A session. Attendees engaged in a deep dialogue with Dr. Tokdemir, further exploring the intricacies of international security, the causes of radicalization and the evolving nature of contemporary conflict.
For those unable to attend the lecture in person, a recording is available through the Library’s YouTube channel: @BilkentLibrary.
